Predatory or Sunshine Trading? Evidence from Crude Oil ETF Rolls

We study prices, liquidity, and individual account trading activity around large and predictable ETF “roll” trades in crude oil futures markets to test the implications of the competing theories of predatory and sunshine trading. The results indicate narrower bid-ask spreads, greater limit order book depth, and a larger number of distinct trading accounts providing liquidity on roll versus non-roll dates. We also extend the theory of strategic trading ahead of a known liquidation to show that even a monopolist trader
has incentives to effectively provide liquidity rather than follow predatory strategies in a “resilient” market. We estimate that ETFs effectively pay about 30 basis points to complete their roll trades. On balance, the evidence supports the implications of the sunshine trading theories and of our modified theory of strategic trading around a known liquidation, and fail to support the implications of predatory trading models.

Kumar Venkataraman is the James M. Collins Chair in Finance and the Academic Director of the ENCAP Investments & LCM Group Alternative Asset Management Center at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University.  He has a PhD in Finance from Arizona State University.

Venkataraman specializes in the area of market microstructure and writes about financial market design; evaluation of trading strategies; and functioning of equity, debt and commodity markets.

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Elvira Sojli

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